Thursday, August 27, 2015

Why Taiwanese Leaders Should Skip the Victory Day Parade in Beijing

Former KMT chairman Lien Chan will attend the military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3, which sends a very bad signal to the young men and women in Taiwan who are giving thought to joining the military

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense on Wednesday announced that sluggish recruitment figures were once again forcing it to delay its plans to end military conscription next year, one of the major goals of the Ma Ying-jeou Administration. Convincing enough qualified young men and women to forsake the comforts of civilian life and enlist in the armed forces will always be a great challenge, one that has been made more formidable by recent controversies such as the July 2013 death of Army conscript Hong Chung-chiu and the 'Apache-gate' scandal earlier this year. At the very least, the Government should not make matters worse by sending contradictory signals about the nature of the threat facing Taiwan to potential recruits.

Sadly, such a signal is exactly what the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is about to broadcast after it allowed its honourary chairman, Lien Chan, to attend a series of events in Beijing commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's defeat in World War II, which will include a goose-stepping military parade on 3 September of such proportions as to bring to mind the very fascism that was defeated in the war. 

My article, published today in the Lowy Interpreter, continues here.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

VOTE 2016: Why Beijing Should Worry About 小Soong’s ‘Rebirth’

Politically expedient or heartfelt, James Soong’s transformation is a reflection of a consolidating identity in Taiwan. And that’s bad news for Beijing 

What a difference a decade can make! On the night of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Lien Chan’s (連戰) defeat to incumbent president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan’s 2004 presidential election, Lien’s discombobulated running mate, James Soong (宋楚瑜), was caught on video vowing to an angry crowd that he would “head to the Presidential Office and ‘kill’ president Chen,” who had just been re-elected by a razor-thin margin. A year later, Mr. Soong visited China to deliver a “secret message” to then-Chinese president Hu Jintao (胡錦濤). Occurring a little more than a month after Beijing had ratified the Anti-Secession Law, which contains language “authorizing” the use of force against Taiwan to prevent its formal independence, the visit did little to dispel Mr. Soong’s image as a politician who would not hesitate to “sell” Taiwan out to China. 

Fast-forward 11 years and 2016 presidential candidate Soong, a savvy politician who played an instrumental role in the oppression of Taiwanese during the nation’s dark past, has adopted a completely different political persona: He is now ostensibly pro Taiwan, speaks the language that the agency he headed under Martial Law, the now-defunct Government Information Office, had systematically repressed, waxes eloquent about transitional justice, and sounds very much like Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), the current presidential candidate for the DPP who is well ahead in the polls. 

My article, published today on Thinking Taiwan, continues here.

Monday, August 24, 2015

中國持續強化在美國反對台灣的宣傳戰

在台灣青年世代的自我認同日益鞏固,民主進步黨贏得2016年1月總統大選的可能性越來越高的同時,中國共產黨的宣傳部門也正在島國人民中間持續培植支持兩岸統一的情感。而這次,外國學者似乎也成了他們的工作對象,美國學者更是首當其衝。

弔詭的是,我們還是從設立在香港的媒體「中國評論通訊社」(CNR)的報導,得知北京最近這項行動的資訊的,這家媒體與中國人民解放軍總政治部聯絡部(PLA / GPD / LD,註1)推動北京對台海兩岸政治作戰(註2)的重要平台──中華文化發展促進會(CAPCC)有著密切關聯。自從2001年中華文化發展促進會成立以來,它和一群大致相近的組織、媒體、非政府機構及智庫已經舉辦過許多場論壇、會議及文化活動,以台灣政府官員、軍事人員、學生及一般大眾為對象,大力提倡台灣與中國「和平統一」。

雖然中國政治作戰的對象多半是台灣人,但它同時也運用自身的資源在國際社會上孤立台灣,將國際輿論轉向反對台灣獨立,以及自然而然地反對民進黨。但直到最近為止,中國對台灣的政治作戰看來多半還是隨著時勢需要專案進行的。

如今情況恐怕要改變了,最近「亞洲太平洋事務基金會(美國)」(Asia Pacific Affairs Foundation (USA))在美國的成立,或許正代表著中國對美國遊說工作正式建立機制的第一步。

據《人民日報》中文版報導,亞洲太平洋事務基金會是在今年2月籌建的私人非營利性學術機構(註3),總部設在加州洛杉磯。8月18日正式成立的這個基金會(註4),十分堂皇地宣稱它的宗旨是要支持和團結中美兩國、海峽兩岸、香港、澳門、日本、韓國及亞太其他國家的智庫組織。中評智庫基金會副執行長宋楷文表示,這個智庫是為了向美國政府官員「拓展意識」,透過與智庫、研究機構及學術機構互相交流並提供資助以「提高在學術領域的影響力」而設立的。宋楷文特別指出華盛頓的美利堅大學(American University, Washington D.C.)、加州理工學院,以及南加州大學(USC)都是可能的合作夥伴,儘管至今仍無從得知他們是否已經聯繫上這些學校。南加大的消息來源表示,他們對這些計畫一無所知。

同一篇報導也提到,南加大工程學院的退休教授張文基和美國華夏政略研究會研究員王中平將領導基金會的研究工作,王中平同時也是基金會籌建委員會的成員,張文基則長期參與統一戰線及「和平統一」工作。台灣大學土木系畢業的旅美工程師,現任美國華盛頓中國和平統一促進會(NACPU)副會長印鐵林,則是基金會的理事。

華盛頓中國和統會則附屬於中共中央統戰部及中國國務院對台事務辦公室(TAO)指導成立的「中國和平統一促進會」(CCPPNR)。和統會也全力捍衛中國對於東海釣魚台列嶼的主權宣示,而釣魚台同時也被日本和台灣宣稱為領土。

王中平則是和統會外圍組織「華夏政略研究會」的一員。華夏政略研究會同時也是2003年9月7日在台北發動的「反台獨救台灣」大遊行(註5)協辦單位之一,這場遊行緊接在時任民進黨籍總統陳水扁號召的台灣正名遊行之後舉行,訴求之一包括要求美國終止對台軍售。

王中平和印鐵林也都被中國和平統一促進會官方網站列入發起者名單(註6)。

宋楷文副執行長和王中平今年5月帶領了一個五人訪問團來到台北(註7),並與中國國民黨總統候選人洪秀柱、親民黨總統候選人宋楚瑜,以及民進黨前主席許信良會談;而這個訪問團在返回美國之前也訪問中國,會晤了中國海峽兩岸關係協會(海協會)前會長陳雲林(註8),並參訪北京、上海、瀋陽等城市。

王中平在7月14日的「第24屆海峽兩岸關係學術研討會」上建議(註9),中國應當實施「全球戰略」,「以海外包圍海內」,建立一支強大的推動統一力量。王中平表示,這應當透過軟實力及硬實力的發展積極實現,他還將「台灣問題」說成是文明衝突的一部分,是西方基督教文化與中國佛教文化的鬥爭。

而在這個月初,亞洲太平洋事務基金會又和中評智庫基金會一同舉辦研討會(註10),邀請台灣和中國學者商討台海兩岸的當前局勢。會議重點如下:

這場由王中平主持的研討會發出警告,認為蔡英文當選之後的台灣就算不一定會推動法理台獨,卻會「與美日合作」實施文化台獨和戰略台獨,「台獨意識」也不可避免會持續深化。因此,中國必須加強軟實力以促進統一、增強兩岸認同感,並且把搞台獨的後果講清楚。必須以武力為後盾,「硬的要更硬」,同時更要將重心放在中美關係上,在「台灣問題」以及整個中美關係上影響美國主流社會。這也需要海外華人來推動。一位與會人士表示:只要中美關係不穩定,兩岸關係就會顛簸。

所有這一切在我看來全都指向一個凶兆:中國正在加強力道孤立美國國內支持民進黨的人士。


中譯:William Tsai
Originally published on the China Policy Institute Blog.

Saturday, August 22, 2015

China Intensifies Media Campaign against Taiwan’s DPP in the US

PRC United Front and political warfare efforts against Taiwan's DPP are intensifying

Amid signs of a consolidating identity among Taiwan’s youth and the increasingly likely prospect of a victory by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the January 2016 elections, China’s Communist Party propaganda department is ramping up its efforts to cultivate a pro-unification sentiment within the island-nation’s population. And this time, foreign academics — American ones in particular — also appear to be on the target list. 

Ironically, the information about this latest effort by Beijing comes to us courtesy of reports in the China Review News (CRNTT, 中國評論通訊社), a Hong Kong-based publication associated with the China Association for Promotion of Chinese Culture (CAPCC, 中華文化發展促進會), a key platform of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Political Department Liaison Department (GPD/LD) that has spearheaded Beijing’s political warfare campaign across the Taiwan Strait. Since its inception in 2001, the CAPCC, working in conjunction with a loose constellation of entities, media outlets, NGOs and think tanks, has organized numerous forums, conferences, and cultural events to promote the “peaceful” unification of Taiwan with China by targeting Taiwanese officials, military personnel, students, and ordinary citizens. 

Although much of its political warfare effort has been directed at the Taiwanese, China has also used its resources to isolate Taiwan within the international community and turn world opinion against Taiwanese independence and, by default, the DPP. Up until recently, however, China’s political warfare campaign against Taiwan appears to have been conducted in mostly ad hoc fashion and whenever opportunities arose. That might be about to change, with the recent creation of a new U.S.-based think tank known as the Asia Pacific Affairs Foundation (USA) (亞洲太平洋事務基金會(美國)), which may represent a first step in the institutionalization of Chinese lobbying efforts in the U.S. 

My article, published today on the University of Nottingham's China Policy Institute Blog, continues here.

Monday, August 17, 2015

Not a Time for Scorched-Earth Politics

Under no circumstances should the DPP and its allies fight in the dirt with the ultraconservatives who have hijacked the KMT

With five months to go before the elections, the presidential campaign is unfortunately starting to resemble the Taipei mayoral race in Nov. 29 elections last year, in which one side engaged in outlandish fabrications against its opponent and turned the entire exercise into a silly back-and-forth of mudslinging and necessary denials. The tactic failed, and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lost the capital to a political neophyte — an independent, of all things. Sadly for Taiwan’s democracy, the ruling party appears to have decided to use a similar strategy for 2016, except this time the stakes are much higher. And it does so at a time when the nation should be striving for unity rather than division. 

It’s the same formula all over again: KMT makes baseless allegation against its opponent; media dutifully report said allegation; opponent issues denial; KMT accuses opponent of smearing its candidate and makes new allegation, ad nauseam…While this goes on, all sides fail to discuss their policies. As a consequence, the public remains in the dark and the election turns into a popularity contest rather than an arena in which the candidate with the best policies is voted into office.

My article, published today on Thinking Taiwan, continues here (photo by the author).

「熱血與基因」:令人擔憂的中國最新徵兵廣告

中國海軍徵兵宣傳片「加入我們,一起逐夢深藍」,影片連結:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z8_KRMdbbs

中國人民解放軍海軍(PLAN)上星期發表了一部全新的徵兵宣傳影片,而這部影片不太可能緩解亞太各國對民族主義及擴張傾向日益抬頭的中國持續升高的恐懼。

這部全長4分16秒的流暢影片,首先以標題「我們的夢想」開場,這一段召喚的對象是中國的年輕人,使用的配樂意外冷靜自制。我們看到中國青年從大學畢業,投身各式各樣的運動,包括單板滑雪(snowboarding)。其中還穿插著香港回歸的畫面,這都是為了培養「新中國」的自豪。搭配的中文字幕這麼說:「我們生於90年代,那時大國已經崛起.........我們像新世紀的曙光一樣,夢想絢爛.........為了夢想,我們投入一切,希望自己的未來,無比堅強。」

只是用不了多久,這部影片就轉而以浮誇的配樂呈現出完全不同性質的視覺意象。對民族主義,以及中國領土主權宣示的召喚不容忽視,其間穿插著同時由台灣和日本宣示為領土的東海釣魚台列嶼/尖閣列島,以及近年來矛盾持續升高的南中國海多處島嶼影像。

偶爾閃過一些中國海軍從事人道護航行動的畫面,但這和確切無疑的軍國主義卻兩相衝突,更被軍國主義完全掩蓋:炸彈落下、火箭發射、目標爆炸的畫面毫無間斷。這當然是為了自我宣告,而不是安撫他人。要是我們把這段影像和上個月初中央電視台放送的一段模擬攻擊台灣總統府的軍事演習影片(註1)兩相對照,其目的正是為了恐嚇潛在的對手,以實現不戰而屈人之兵。

搭配這段好戰畫面的字幕則更加令人不安。影片第二段的標題是「使命的召喚」,它告訴我們「人類賴以生存的地球,表面71%的是蔚藍,無論在世界哪一個角落,只要有蔚藍,就有我們的守護.......國家海洋和海外利益快速發展,幅員遼闊,但不容一分疆域他有。」

字幕接著宣稱,中國有300萬平方公里的管轄海域,其中500平方米以上的島有6700多座,「因海權產生的鬥爭卻從未停歇。」字幕繼續說:「物產豐富,絕不認半毫資源割讓。」注意,這段文字寫的是「資源」而不是「疆域」,但疆域包含在其中是不問可知的。換言之,疆域及其上的資源全都專屬於中國。根據美國海軍情報局最近一份對於中國海軍的報告(註2),中國評論者在字幕中提到的「中國有300萬平方公里管轄海域」,將會涵蓋「西太平洋第一島鏈內部將近90%的主要水體,包括渤海、黃海、東海和南中國海。」

影片第三段則是十分不祥地命名為「基因的榮耀」。「數以千計的海戰,造就了我們不凡的血性,熱血伴隨著硝煙,不斷摔倒,不斷成長;有汗水,才是青春,有磨礪,才有鋒芒。我們枕戈待旦,礪兵秣馬。」字幕是這麼說的。

影片最後一段「逐夢深藍」的調性就不那麼令人擔憂了。字幕吟詠道:「這裡,讓你展現過人的才華;這裡,給你胸懷寰宇的翅膀;這裡,有全世界關注的目光.......強大的祖國需要一個強大的海軍,海軍需要你,一起完成偉大復興的夢想。」

事實上,北京政權、中央軍委甚至中國海軍本身究竟有沒有意願讓海軍成為全球性的力量,是很值得懷疑的,在當今的地緣政治脈絡下更不可能,因為這樣的努力得冒著和美國海軍及其他歐美國家海軍升高緊張的風險。

這有一部分也是力有未逮。雖然近年來中國海軍在西太平洋進行過許多次實彈射擊演習,可這和真正長達數月之久的遠距離兵力調動還是相去甚遠。中國海軍要累積出這種實力、凝聚力及協同作業能力進行遠洋任務,恐怕得再等上幾年(美國海軍情報局則認為還需要十年)。因此現階段宣稱中國海軍是一支遠洋海軍(blue water navy),恐怕是不切實際的,中國海軍目前充其量就是一支逐漸擺脫近岸戰鬥力量這一傳統定位的近海海軍(green water navy),至於它在遠洋戰區投入戰鬥的能力則更令人懷疑,要和訓練更精良,作戰經驗更豐富的美國海軍或是日本海上自衛隊交手都還需要幾年的磨練,更不用說兩個對手聯合之後了。

大放厥詞和召喚民族主義,證諸世界各國徵召青年當兵的文宣都是合情合理的。然而,整部影片無可否認的好戰調性,加上熱血與基因的運用,這些都不太可能有利於中國消除全世界對其今後意圖越來越強烈的疑慮。


中譯:William Tsai
Originally published as "'Blood and genes': China's alarming new military recruitment campaign" in the Lowy Interpreter.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Taiwan Unveils New Long-Endurance Drone, New Weapons at Defense Trade Show

Taiwan showcases new weapons systems, including an indigenously produced long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle 

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense on August 13 unveiled a new indigenously produced long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and various weapons systems at the biennial Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition (TADTE). 

The centerpiece of this year’s event was without doubt the Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV developed by the Aeronautical Systems Research Division (ASRD), a branch of the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), Taiwan’s top defense research institute. Still in the testing phase, the all-composite MALE prototype, which bears a striking similarity to the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, can carry multiple payloads and was designed to conduct civilian/military intelligence gathering, surveillance, reconnaissance, environmental research and coastal patrol operations. 

Although very little information was made available, a fact sheet provided by the designer indicated that the UAV can perform automatic takeoff and landing, automatic navigation, multi-vehicle control, aerial communication relay and ground network control, and real-time video transmission. The drone is designed for day and night civilian/military missions. 

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here (photo by the author; more in Diplomat article).

'Blood and genes': China's alarming new military recruitment campaign

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) last week released a new recruitment video that is unlikely to assuage growing fears in the region over an increasingly nationalistic and expansionist China 

The slick 4 minute 16 second video opens with the header 'Our Dream.' Accompanied by a surprisingly restrained soundtrack, this section appeals to China's youth. We see young Chinese graduating from university and engaging in various sports, including snowboarding. This is interspersed with images of Hong Kong's retrocession, all meant to cultivate pride in a 'new' China. 'We were born in the 1990s,' the accompanying text says, in Chinese. 'By then, China had already risen...with bright dreams, we want to shine like the new century...we want to become very strong.' 

It doesn't take long, however, for the video to shift to bombastic music and visuals of a very different nature. The appeal to nationalism — and to China's territorial claims — is hard to miss, what with footage of the Diaoyutai/Senkaku islets in the East China Sea, which are also claimed by Japan and Taiwan, as well as various features in the South China Sea, a source of rising tension in recent years. 

My article, published today in the Interpreter at the Lowy Institute continues here.

Real People vs. Phantom Sources in Taiwan’s Battle of Ideas

A struggling KMT will use anything at this point to discredit civil society and its main opponent in the 2016 elections 

It only took a few days before an op-ed in The Diplomat by U.S. academic Dennis V. Hickey turned into a coordinated assault by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators, pan-blue media and the Chinese propaganda apparatus against Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Days after Hickey’s alarmist editorial was published, the embattled blue camp was accusing Ms. Tsai, the DPP’s presidential candidate for 2016, of sponsoring “extremists” and acting like the Islamic State terrorist organization in Taiwan. 

No strangers to hyperbole and false analogies, the KMT legislators seized upon Mr. Hickey’s remark that the DPP was “reportedly embracing a Middle Eastern practice known as ‘rent a mob’ and subsidizing extremists who attack Taiwan’s government ministries” and ran with it. The operative word in this otherwise preposterous sentence (preposterous to anyone who has been on the ground monitoring the activists since 2012) is reportedly. By not providing a single clue — no source, no link, no witnesses — as to who might be behind that damaging information, Hickey breaks the rules on academic and journalistic accountability. It would be one thing if Mr. Hickey had accused Ms. Tsai of, say, failing to wash her hands after picking up her cat’s droppings; it’s quite another to allege that she is sponsoring “extremists” who are attacking government buildings and undermining confidence in Taiwan’s democracy. 

My article, published today on Thinking Taiwan, continues here.

Monday, August 10, 2015

Coincidences, Coincidences in Tainan

An absurd vote buying case in the southern city threatens the fabric of Taiwan’s democracy 

The Ministry of Justice announced today (Aug. 10) that three Tainan prosecutors and a spokesperson for the prosecutors’ office are to be reassigned as part of what it called a “routine” rotation. Regular though such personnel changes may be, the move is nevertheless rather convenient for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), as all three prosecutors had been investigating alleged vote buying by Tainan City Council Speaker Lee Chuan-chiao (李全教) of the KMT in the Dec. 25, 2014, speakership election. 

But hey, coincidences do happen. 

It’s also probably a coincidence that the announcement comes one week after the Control Yuan voted to impeach Tainan Mayor William Lai (賴清德) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for “gross negligence” resulting from his refusal to attend city council meetings and Q&As. Following the 7-2 decision on Aug. 4, the Control Yuan referred the case to the Judicial Yuan’s Commission on the Disciplinary Sanctions of Public Functionaries. At its harshest, the Commission could decide to strip Lai of his post. 

My article, published today on Thinking Taiwan, continues here.

Friday, August 07, 2015

Sorry Beijing, But Taiwan Isn’t Turning its Back on History — You Are

The Taiwanese have made their choice; the ball is in Beijing’s court 

What happens when a closed authoritarian regime whose ideology is based on foundations of “historical inevitability” sees history move in an unexpected direction? That is a question that officials in Beijing must be asking themselves as Taiwanese society — and by default its political scene — continues to reject any possibility of unification with China. 

After nearly eight years of rapprochement between Taipei and Beijing, nearly two dozen cross-strait agreements and booming tourism, China is no closer to achieving “peaceful” unification today than it was a decade ago, when Beijing’s nemesis, president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was in office. 

My article, published today on Thinking Taiwan, continues here (photo by the author).

對台灣民進黨的兩大迷思可以休矣

其一,民進黨不會損害海峽兩岸關係。其二,民進黨也不曾幕後指使群眾抗爭。

在〈美國檢討對台政策的時候到了嗎?〉這篇文章中,郝志堅(Dennis V. Hickey)對美國與台灣關係今後的發展提出了幾項重要看法,這些觀點無疑是必須認真看待,以確保台灣海峽兩岸局勢穩定的。但不幸的是,作者對於目前被看好贏得2016年1月總統大選的最大反對黨民進黨,乃至台灣的公民社會,呈現出的卻是一幅誤解的圖像,並且有可能對負責為今後美台關係擘畫出明確一致策略的美國決策者產生誤導作用。

郝志堅首先寫道,儘管民進黨力圖將自己「重新建立為」在中國國民黨之外「負責任的」替代選項,「美國國防規劃人員仍不免懷疑,民進黨是否仍企圖陷美國於台海危機之中,以成全它的台灣脫離中國獨立之夢。」

郝志堅看來並不瞭解,民進黨在現任主席,同時也是總統參選人蔡英文領導下,早已不是陳水扁總統兼任黨主席時那個讓美國政府焦頭爛額的民進黨。民進黨不只是從過去經驗得到了教訓,民進黨高層也十分清楚,重回過去的好鬥姿態只會讓他們賠上這些年來一點一滴掙回的信任與支持。專家學者們毫無疑慮地假定北京當局已經從1995到1996年間的台海飛彈危機得到教訓,不會重蹈尋釁生事的覆轍,但他們卻似乎無法認同民進黨也能記取教訓,而民進黨又不同於北京的中國共產黨,它必須確實遵守民主政治規則。這樣的偏見往往蒙蔽了判斷。

不僅如此,民進黨和派駐台北的美國政府官員也持續進行著密切深入、極具建設性的對話,確保雙方對於重大問題的看法一致。

即使郝志堅堅稱,蔡英文「對這樣的疑慮未能充分解答」,而她「對許多當今重大議題的立場,特別是如何處理對北京關係的計劃,仍然曖昧不明」,蔡英文還是明確表示,她的海峽兩岸交流平台會是以當今(即中華民國)憲法架構為基礎「維持現狀」,並持續「累積成果」(也就是不廢棄前任政府在兩岸和解上取得的成果)。換言之,蔡英文承諾在一套與現任總統馬英九十分類似的政策之下維持海峽兩岸關係,事實上,這兩人的政策實在太相似,以至於台灣社會的「深綠」人士一再指控蔡英文企圖將民進黨「國民黨化」,兩個主張台灣獨立的新政黨在不久前成立,正是為了回應蔡英文在他們看來的靠攏中間路線。

此外,蔡英文也持續和中國高層展開對話,並且積極為彼此尋求一套可行的權宜之計(modus vivendi)。蔡英文女士唯一堅持不肯跨越的底線,是遵守「九二共識」及「一個中國」架構,她對這一點也表達得很明確。根本就沒有什麼把美國拖進對中國戰爭以達成事實獨立夢想的秘密計劃,因為在蔡英文心目中,台灣(或者中華民國)已經是個獨立國家,一旦她如願當選,首要任務將是提振持續衰退的經濟,還有更新社會安全體系等各項議題。

台灣與中國的關係正處於兩個極端之間的灰色地帶,其中一端(統一)是台灣人民無法接受的。因此,沒有一項政策會是完全透明的,台北和北京的政治人物必須在兩極之間尋找出路(北京認知到台灣人不願接受統一之後,也將不得不接受一套並非完美的兩岸政策)。

接下來,郝志堅毫無來由地表示對於民進黨「放棄民主途徑」的關切(至於是誰在關切則隻字未提),這種說法在2014年11月地方九合一選舉民進黨獲得大勝之後,完全站不住腳。作者宣稱,民進黨「據說」(但他沒提供消息來源)「正在採用中東國家常見的『僱人作亂』(rent a mob)手法,資助攻擊台灣政府機構的極端分子。」

大家想想看。郝志堅連個消息來源都無須提供,而他的說詞則和選情告急的國民黨,尤其是早已淪為丑角,毫無公信力的蔡正元、邱毅之流自從2014年太陽花運動佔領立法院以來慣用的說詞如出一轍。出於政治考量,馬英九政府始終不能也不願承認社會有能力不受當局制約而行動,而且只要體制失靈就會挺身抗爭這個事實。國民黨寧可不去面對近幾年來逐漸成形的世代與認同挑戰,而是選擇了阻力最小的路:將一切都歸咎於民進黨。

要是郝志堅過去幾年都待在台灣,並且做了該做的調查研究,他就會明白新一代與政府作對的抗爭者們不只對所有政黨都強烈懷疑,也有充分的組織能力、應變能力和才智,不需要任何政黨的「資助」就能做成大事。我們這些長期關注採訪台灣社會運動的人(我還沒加入小英基金會之前就已經採訪了很久早就得到了結論,他們的抗爭不只針對愈來愈不負責任、脫離大眾的國民黨,也針對同時被當成不可靠的盟友以及部分問題所在的民進黨。那些被郝志堅說成是在從事極端主義行動的非政府組織與公民團體成員們,對民進黨的評價極差,這種看法即使在蔡英文接替蘇貞昌出任黨主席,試圖挽救民進黨在社運抗爭者中的形象之後,仍然延續至今。

社會運動者對民進黨的積怨強烈到這樣的程度:許多決定加入政黨(多半是加入民進黨)的社會運動者都被說成是近乎「出賣」社運。臉書上隨處可見對決定投身政黨政治的青年發動的起底和攻訐,這實在不像是民進黨與社會運動者密切合作的表現。

當然,這並不代表公民團體與民進黨的利益不會在某些情況下有所重疊,或者他們的思想信念不會所見略同。可是,要從意見相近說到「資助」非國家行為者(non-state actors),這中間實在是跳躍太遠了。

人們也不免希望郝志堅真正去過現場,親眼看看他所謂的「極端分子」都是些甚麼人:那是一群年輕有理想的運動者,支持他們的則是專家學者、律師,以及一般大眾,他們用盡一切法律途徑提出申訴,到頭來卻只是讓政府公然背信、無視人民、繼續枉法蠻幹,有時不惜草菅人命,一旦事涉中國,更恣意危害台灣民主機制。悲哀的是,郝志堅對於充當馬英九及訪台中國官員保鑣,毫不客氣恐嚇威脅非政府組織工作者,甚至動手毆打手無寸鐵抗爭者而不受法律制裁的統派人士及(中國資助的)黑幫分子完全不置一詞,他也隻字不提國民黨支持者在2004年總統大選落敗之後使用汽油彈攻擊警察,或是開卡車衝撞警方人牆的行徑(開車衝撞警察的正是前文提到過的邱毅)。

馬英九政府如今企圖靠著辱罵侮蔑來誹謗公民社會,指控公民社會「極端」和「非理性」(還將他們比喻為基地組織、紅衛兵及伊斯蘭國),因為他們做到了民進黨無法做到的事。要是郝志堅有機會親自認識台灣的公民社會(但以他的狀況而言,能在難得訪問台灣時做到這點的外國學者實在也屈指可數,他們只和政府官員,以及預先安排好的親政府學者會談,偶爾才想到拜訪民進黨),他就會明白,他所謂的極端主義只不過是一個社會拒絕認命屈服的表現。抵抗國家的自我毀滅,捍衛自己的自由民主,這些都不是極端主義;實際上,這是完全理性的回應,儘管不可避免地也是一時權宜。

不幸,郝志堅在對公民社會的敘述(或者應當說是錯誤描述)之中,卻全盤接受了一個因為抗拒現代化而無法回應愈發自覺積極的公民社會訴求的政黨所散發的文宣。當前的局勢和香港頗有相似之處,香港的公民社會同樣以上街抗議回應(中國施加的)外在壓力。與我曾有一面之緣的郝志堅當然是立意良善的,這無須懷疑;但他在文章中提出的許多重要論點,卻因為他對台灣近幾年來最重要的議題,也就是台灣公民社會的崛起不免幼稚的觀感而大為動搖。

中譯:William Tsai

Originally published as "Two Myths About Taiwan's DPP That Need to be Laid to Rest," in The Diplomat.

Thursday, August 06, 2015

Two Myths About Taiwan’s DPP That Need to Be Laid to Rest

The DPP will not ruin cross-strait relations, and it isn’t manipulating popular protests from behind the scenes 

In his piece “Time to Review US Policy on Taiwan?” Dennis V. Hickey makes several important points about the future of the United States’ relationship with Taiwan, and there is no doubt that those should be addressed seriously to ensure continued stability in the Taiwan Strait. Unfortunately, the author presents a picture of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), currently the favorite in the January 2016 elections, and Taiwan’s civil society that is highly misinformed and which risks misleading the very American officials who will be charged with formulating a coherent U.S.-Taiwan strategy for the future. 

To begin with, Hickey writes that while the DPP has sought to “‘rebrand” itself as a “responsible” alternative to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), “U.S. defense planners cannot help but wonder if the DPP will seek to entrap the U.S. in a cross-strait crisis in an effort to achieve its dreams of independence from China.” 

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here (photo by the author).

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Canada's Crumbling Democracy

The government is dictating which Canadians can and cannot vote. What will it decide next? 

It’s funny what exile does to a person. It removes one from the seemingly intransient ground that for decades had been home and drops the subject between worlds: unable to become fully part of one’s adoptive land, and yet somehow alienated from one’s home. Still, with this alienation comes a richer understanding of what home is. It’s like taking a step back to assess one’s work of art, to look at it from a different perspective. 

In the nearly ten years that I have lived abroad, my experiences as an expatriate have helped me better appreciate what it means to be a Canadian. Not only has this allowed me to see how my native country is perceived abroad, it has also led me to better appreciate the idiosyncrasies that make Canada unique and precious. As a journalist whose work has largely focused on the travails of a young democracy living under the shadow of an authoritarian giant, I have also become more sensitive to the challenges that we face in ensuring the quality of our democracy. 

My article, published today in The National Interest, continues here.

Sunday, August 02, 2015

The Powers That Be and the ‘R’ Word in Taiwan

Once again the authorities are accusing young activists of ‘irrationality.’ But there is nothing ‘irrational’ about the screamers 

Taiwan’s political scene is once again being shaken by young people who have decided to take direct action against the government, this time over “minor” alterations to high school curriculum guidelines. As with the other youth movements that contested the authorities’ modus operandi in recent years, the participants have shattered the traditional norms of behavior by being loud, scaling walls, and occupying space. Thus challenged, the response by the authorities, school administrators, and members of the ruling party has been to characterize the protesters as “irrational.” 

This rhetorical tool was repeatedly used during the campaign against forced evictions in 2013 and in the midst of the Sunflower Movement’s occupation of the Legislative Yuan the following year. In each instance, the government — plus a complicit media and academic sector — countered by saying that while it welcomed disagreement under democratic principles, young people should express their views “rationally.” Needless to say, by rational the powers that be meant playing by rules that were set by the government. It didn’t matter that the government itself had broken every democratic rule in how it had arrived at some of its policies, or that debating officials “rationally” was the surest ticket to defeat. The government knew best, and if society didn’t agree that was because officials hadn’t explained themselves clearly enough. 

My article, published today on Thinking Taiwan, continues here (photo by the author).

Saturday, August 01, 2015

中台關係:延續現狀還是重啟對立?

隨著民進黨贏得2016年1月台灣總統大選,重掌執政的前景看好,許多評論者都預測台海兩岸在馬英九總統領導的國民黨政府任內八年的相對穩定之後,又要回到緊張對立狀態。

但是民進黨贏得大選究竟會不會真的導致兩岸回復敵對,多半還是取決於北京當局如何因應。

首先,很重要的一點,我們要釐清總統候選人蔡英文主席領導下的民進黨「不是」甚麼。蔡英文和2000到2008年間連任兩屆的前總統陳水扁不同,她在兩岸關係上採取更克制的態度。她轉而集中心力處理內政問題、團結全國人民。當她不得不說明自己的兩岸政策,蔡英文則採取較前任更為中道溫和的立場,宣示在現行中華民國憲法架構下維持「現狀」,持續與北京當局發展關係。

換言之,儘管某些圈子的人不斷危言聳聽,蔡英文終究不會片面宣布台灣在法理上獨立,不會採取行動挑戰北京早已宣示的對台動武「條件」。

除此之外,透過避談台獨黨綱問題,轉而運用台灣前途決議文之中宣示台灣/中華民國已經是獨立國家的文字作為台灣對中國關係的基礎,蔡英文也表明了無意在選戰中主打兩岸關係問題。

蔡英文的中國政策因此看上去和國民黨馬英九的並無二致,馬英九在總統任內也將「維持現狀」標舉為中國政策的重心。但是蔡英文和馬英九在一個關鍵問題上立場分歧,那就是充滿爭議的「九二共識」,其中的「一個中國」原則是蔡英文的民進黨選民所不能接受的。不過,蔡英文仍然保證繼續積極與中國維持關係───換句話說,她看重兩岸關係的實質更甚於海峽兩岸交流「平台」之類的技術細節。

儘管黨內保守勢力批判蔡英文,指控她企圖將民進黨「國民黨化」的聲音時有所聞,如今蔡英文的權力仍然達到了顛峰。民意調查結果顯示她遙遙領先國民黨候選人及其他對手的組合。

國民黨要想戰勝蔡英文,他們就得派出一位強力的候選人,能夠善加運用2014年3、4月間的太陽花運動所清楚展現的,對台灣認同日益鮮明且積極發聲的社會力量。

結果,國民黨卻提名了(並在7月19日正式通過)立法院副院長洪秀柱出馬競選總統,而她的中國政策在人們看來似乎是與社會趨向完全背道而馳的。洪秀柱對中國與台灣地位的看法,使得許多不分本省籍和外省籍的國民黨立法委員揚言退黨,還有一些黨員則公開批判,因而被開除黨籍。

眼看危機正在醞釀,國民黨大老們用盡全力勸說洪秀柱收斂自己的說法,這樣的干預在洪秀柱公開為「一中同表」政策背書,不僅違背國民黨官方「一國兩憲」的立場,更與北京的立場互相呼應之後成為不得不然。她公開宣示一旦當選就要與中國簽訂和平協議,並且有可能停止向美國購買武器,連許多國民黨人聽了都大驚失色,大多數台灣人就更不用說了,而她對中華民國存在與否前後反覆的表態───洪秀柱起先是說,表達中華民國的存在會產生「兩國論」,這是「不可以的」───也在許多圈子裡引起疑慮。在黨員的壓力下,洪秀柱最終回歸到國民黨主張的「一中各表」與「九二共識」,並提出「一個共識,三個內涵」框架,向選民承諾她會強力要求北京當局承認中華民國政府的合法性。

可是洪秀柱畢竟是亮出了她的意識型態底牌,因此很難想像她立場的明顯軟化不僅僅是一種在選前安撫大眾的策略。

雖說洪秀柱在民主的台灣當然有權利表達她的觀點,但這些看法在明年1月之前能不能獲得接受恐怕大有疑問。她的信念不僅和台灣人建立起來的信念恰恰相反,更和海峽彼岸專制獨裁政權的立場若合符節這件事,恐怕就足以讓目前身陷危機的國民黨再嘗敗績。

* * *

中國在最近一份國防白皮書〈中國的軍事戰略〉裡宣稱:「但影響台海局勢穩定的根源並未消除,『台獨』分裂勢力及其分裂活動仍然是兩岸關係和平發展的最大威脅。」

考慮到這點,北京如何回應蔡英文可望當選這個事實,將是台海兩岸關係在未來四年到八年的民進黨執政期間究竟會延續現狀還是重啟對立的決定性因素。北京當局由誰主導「台灣問題」的處理,也將對往後的發展產生影響。

北京可能的回應之一,是對於台灣人民在大選投票中做出「錯誤」選擇,投給蔡英文而非更親近中國的國民黨候選人洪秀柱加以「懲罰」。這方面的政策可能包含對台灣實施經濟制裁,或採取更強硬的手段。其中一項可用的策略,是中國共產黨和中國國民黨聯手詆毀民進黨政府。這可能有助於國民黨在2018年縣市長選舉,以及2020年總統大選中東山再起。然而,民進黨若能在立法院取得過半數席次(立法委員選舉和總統大選在明年1月16日一併舉行),這種行動的成效可能會減半。

此外,在中國人民解放軍總政治部聯絡部鼓動之下,一旦民進黨重返執政,特別是贏得國會多數之後,近年來在台灣各地滋長的促統力量,可想而知也會扮演更重要的角色。

從近年來促統人物在台灣各地建立的網路看來,國家機器恐怕並不具備監控其活動的能力,更不用說抵制了。「深藍」人士及統派公民社會甚至有可能仿效太陽花運動,運用公民不服從擾亂民進黨執政,造成社會混亂。

但是北京當局過多的公開行動恐怕會帶來反效果。正如1995到1996年的飛彈危機清楚揭示的,中國的直接施壓很可能適得其反,不但無法威懾台灣人,反倒會促成他們堅定立場。而在目前的狀況下,反效果意味著台灣民族主義的高漲以及反中國情緒的持續深化。最近中國中央電視台一段軍事演習模擬進攻一幢貌似台北總統府建築物的新聞影片在台灣引發的反應,正是一個典型的例子。

既然這樣的壓力有將馬英九總統任內發展多時的友好和睦及緊密依存一筆勾銷的危險,我們也就不能自動假設北京會甘冒這樣的風險決心「懲罰」台灣。因此,北京當局也有可能和蔡英文一樣尋求延續現狀。儘管北京透過傳統管道滿足其所欲的能力會在蔡英文當選之後大幅削弱,從而使它不得不運用親中促統的次國家(sub-state)力量。

將民進黨可能重掌政權放進周邊地區的地緣政治脈絡也是很重要的。亞太周邊地區對於北京政權及其主權宣示愈來愈不抱幻想,而中國對於國內公民社會日益嚴酷的鎮壓,也無法在國際上贏得任何友誼。

由此看來,只要蔡英文小心行事,她在國際上的地位,至少在華盛頓當局眼中的地位,就會比陳水扁前總統更令人羨慕許多;陳水扁在國際社會仍然對中國未來即使未必走向民主,也會更加友善無害的可能性仍然樂觀期待時,選擇奮力爭取國家主權的象徵。

儘管目前的民調數據意味著民進黨勝利在望,但在六個月內實在有太多事可能發生,而國民黨就算犯過這麼多錯誤,終究是存活到了今天───而且還非常有錢。

萬一國民黨和洪秀柱真的獲勝,立法委員選舉的結果就會更加至關重要,因為國會的勢力平衡將足以左右行政當局實施(或強行推動)政策的能力。國民黨當選總統而民進黨取得國會多數席次,或許能有效抵制洪秀柱領導的政府,一如國民黨占多數的國會在陳水扁的兩屆總統任期內成功癱瘓他的施政那樣。要是出現了這種局面,洪秀柱將無法隨心所欲地強推政策,除非她決心向北京那個專制獨裁政權看齊。不過,正如我們在馬英九對中國的交往跨越某些紅線時所見到的,當台灣公民社會感受到台灣的生活方式遭受危害,他們必定會再次起身抗爭。

另一個發生機率更低的情境也是同樣道理,只是社會大規模動盪的可能性更大,那就是國民黨既當選總統又贏得國會多數席次。這是要從台灣的保守/促統力量和北京的保守勢力「一體支持」洪秀柱的意識型態才能理解的。在這個脈絡之下,2014年在挺身抵抗政府的過程中大幅度自我培力,並且有效阻礙了馬英九歷史定位進程的青年世代,預計還會再次採取行動,而且極有可能升高抗爭強度。

在洪總統掌控行政部門及立法部門的情況下,台灣年輕人的恐懼程度將以指數飆升,他們之中許多人一再告訴本文作者,自己沒有其他國家的護照,因此只能留下來承擔後果。不過,要是洪秀柱在當選之後軟化她的中國政策,並且採納溫和理念,這樣的恐懼或許有可能得到緩解。儘管目前看來似乎不太可能,但選舉產生的政府官員通常會在當選之後向「中間」路線靠攏。

從當前局勢看來,採取偏中間立場呼應大多數台灣人最迫切訴求的民進黨,在當選之後會是最能確保社會安定的力量。洪秀柱的國民黨則很有可能成為最不穩定的因素,原因純粹只是民進黨在評估人民的需求,以及判讀台灣民族主義的熱度上表現得更好。

北京能否理解民主政治對於政黨的約束,以及它在民主政治產生它所不樂見的結果時如何應對,將是未來幾年影響台海局勢穩定的決定性因素。


中譯:William Tsai